4个月500点行情，为何有人翻倍有人亏？

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant surge in September 2025, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 158% and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index increasing by 118% [1] - Public funds also saw a collective performance rebound, with 13 funds doubling their net value [1] - The article highlights the inconsistency of market analysts' predictions, suggesting that their accuracy is often no better than random chance [3] Fund Performance - The top-performing funds include: - Debon Xin Xing Value A with a return of 280.31% - China Europe Digital Economy A with a return of 266.27% - CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selected Two-Year Open A with a return of 263.38% [2] - A total of 774 funds in the market achieved returns exceeding 100%, indicating a strong head effect in fund performance [14] Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the core of stock market analysis lies in the competition for pricing power rather than technical or fundamental analysis [4][10] - It discusses the importance of sustained capital flow into stocks, as seen in the contrasting performances of stocks like Cuiwei Co. and Dongruan Group during the stablecoin concept boom [6][10] Investment Strategy - Recommendations for investors include: - Disregarding complex technical analyses - Utilizing suitable quantitative tools - Observing the direction of sustained capital inflows - Maintaining a respectful attitude towards the market [15] - The current tech stock rally is attributed to policy drivers, domestic substitution, and AI revolution, suggesting a fundamental value reassessment [15]