市场呈现流动性驱动的结构性牛市，关注芯片ETF（512760）

Group 1 - The current market is primarily driven by liquidity, indicating a structural bull market, but micro liquidity alone is not sufficient for sustained performance, as potential market corrections could lead to liquidity withdrawal through fund redemptions [1] - There are two potential directions for the Chinese stock market: 1) a valuation-driven bull market with increased volatility in high-valuation sectors, leading to risks; 2) an improvement in macro fundamentals and corporate earnings, allowing the market to expand from main sectors to others, facilitating a high-low switch [1] - Recent data shows a weakening economic momentum, with retail sales growth slowing compared to July, and a decline in the housing market, suggesting that the path to fundamental improvement has certain thresholds [3] Group 2 - The expectation of a preventive rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to a recovery in overseas demand, potentially benefiting export-oriented sectors in China [3] - The current domestic economic pressure is viewed as a normal consequence of the "anti-involution" path, which aims to control supply-side expansion to restore prices and profits, followed by demand recovery [3] - Short-term market performance is influenced by policy rollbacks and supply-side policies, while structural improvements may exist in the export chain; long-term, price-sensitive upstream resources are expected to benefit first from price recovery [4] Group 3 - The core variable for maintaining a liquidity-driven market or transitioning to a profit-driven one is the pace of fundamental improvement; despite short-term pressures, there are supportive factors in the market [4] - Recommendations include focusing on sectors driven by funds (technology, anti-involution) and those supported by fundamentals/policies, with specific attention to chip ETFs and photovoltaic ETFs [4]