铅价中期面临回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a potential shift towards oversupply as recycled lead production resumes while demand growth remains limited [1][3]. Supply Side Summary - Recycled lead smelters are significantly reducing production due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply, leading to a substantial contraction in lead ingot supply [1]. - Overseas mining operations, such as Endeavor and Vedanta-Zinc India, are expected to contribute to a slight increase in supply, while domestic mining production remains high but with limited room for further growth [1]. - The raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly decreased, and processing fees are continuously declining, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. Demand Side Summary - Demand for lead ingots is increasing due to a rise in electric bicycle battery production, which is boosting the operating rates of lead-acid battery companies [2]. - However, the automotive sector is facing challenges, with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, leading to a negative impact on overall lead ingot demand [2]. - The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand growth [2]. Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve's clear path towards interest rate cuts is anticipated to have limited impact on the lead market, as the market has already priced in these changes [3]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a tight balance until October, with strong support for lead prices; however, as recycled lead production resumes and demand growth is insufficient, a shift towards oversupply may occur, posing a risk of price correction [3].