万腾外汇:多数人都认为将连续降息时,古尔斯比却表示不要急于降息

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Goolsbee, emphasizes the need for substantial justification before implementing further monetary easing beyond the recent 25 basis point rate cut [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Goolsbee warns against hastily initiating consecutive rate cuts based on the assumption that inflation will naturally decline, as this could lead to policy misjudgments [3]. - The current unemployment rate of 4.3% is considered healthy, and labor market indicators suggest moderate cooling rather than a sharp contraction typical of historical recessions [3]. - The recent adjustment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% reflects an assessment of trade war impacts, with retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners being less severe than anticipated, resulting in weaker inflationary pressures [3]. Group 2: Political Influence and Economic Predictions - Goolsbee reaffirms the importance of the independence of monetary policy, stating that the Federal Reserve has never altered its standards due to political interference, with professional competence being the primary criterion for reappointment [3]. - Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to implement two more 25 basis point rate cuts within the year, supported by the latest economic forecasts from the Fed [3]. - Goolsbee expresses caution regarding aggressive easing paths, noting that the Trump administration's trade policies have disrupted the economic environment, which previously seemed to be moving towards neutral interest rates [3]. Group 3: Concerns on Talent Mobility - Goolsbee raises concerns about the proposed significant increase in H-1B visa application fees to $100,000, highlighting the positive correlation between high-skilled talent mobility and technological innovation, as well as productivity growth [4]. - He warns that restricting the influx of scientific talent could lead to insufficient productivity growth in the long term [4]. Group 4: Employment Data Risks - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman identifies potential risks in current employment data, suggesting that moderate rate cuts may be necessary to prevent sudden deterioration in the labor market [5].