Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-25 01:49Core Viewpoint - The current high demand for ready-to-drink beverages driven by delivery subsidies is leading to industry supply expansion, but concerns are rising about brand same-store performance under high base conditions by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The overall supply growth rate is slowing down, with the total number of milk tea stores in China reaching 518,000 as of August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2,000, and coffee stores totaling 190,000, a month-on-month increase of 4,000 [1] - The marginal reduction in delivery subsidies since July has led to a simultaneous slowdown in the store expansion speed of major brands [1] Group 2: Store Opening Trends - There is significant differentiation in store openings within the tea beverage segment, with leading brands in the mid-to-high-end market, such as Gu Ming and Ba Wang Tea Ji, maintaining a competitive edge, while low-end brand Mi Xue Bing Cheng has slowed its opening pace to protect existing store sales [2] - In the coffee segment, industry penetration is rapidly increasing, with brands like Luckin, Kudi, and Lucky Coffee expanding quickly, while Starbucks maintains a slow growth rate in store numbers [2] Group 3: Store Efficiency - The growth rate of store efficiency for leading brands is under pressure due to the reduction of third-party delivery subsidies, with August store efficiency growth for brands in the mid-price range (10-20 yuan) generally falling within the 10%-20% year-on-year growth range, although there is some internal differentiation [3] - High-end brands have limited participation in subsidy activities, which may affect their store efficiency differently [3]