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Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation in Q3 2025, with prices significantly higher than in Q2. Precious metals, particularly gold, have performed exceptionally well, reaching historical highs, while basic metals like copper remain strong. The energy sector, however, is underperforming due to oversupply [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the absence of recession signs in the US economy and the Federal Reserve's risk management-style interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact commodity price rebounds. Expansionary fiscal policies in the US and Europe are likely to boost overall demand [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This move is characterized as a risk management-style cut, essentially a preventive measure against potential economic downturns [2] - Despite some signs of economic weakening, the US economy has not entered a recession, with retail sales data showing a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August, marking three consecutive months of growth [2] - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more pessimistic view on the labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also raising inflation expectations for 2026 [2][5] Group 3: Historical Context of Interest Rate Cuts - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has undergone seven major interest rate cut cycles, categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts. Typically, preventive cuts benefit precious metals and US equities, while recessionary cuts tend to negatively impact equities but favor gold prices [3] - The price movements of copper and crude oil are significantly influenced by the state of the real economy and demand for these commodities [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from China indicates a dual weakness in supply and demand, with industrial value-added growth slowing to 5.2% year-on-year in August. Exports also saw a decline, with a -0.4% year-on-year change, marking the first negative growth of the year [7] - Despite the slowdown in traditional industries, high-tech sectors continue to show resilience, with a 9.3% year-on-year growth in high-tech industrial value-added [7] Group 5: Policy Measures and Market Outlook - The frequency of new policy measures in China is increasing, focusing on market reforms, expanding service consumption, and local government debt management. These measures are expected to support growth in Q4 [8] - A potential global shift towards a new phase of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could benefit commodity prices, although oil and agricultural products may underperform due to supply expansions and tariff impacts [8]