程强：“9.24”新政一周年，慢牛格局延续

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the bond market continuing to adjust and industrial commodity futures showing widespread gains [1] Stock Market Analysis - The A-share market showed overall strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3850-point mark, closing up 0.83%. The Shenzhen Component rose by 1.80%, the ChiNext Index by 2.28%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 3.49%, all reaching new phase highs. Over 80% of the 4457 stocks in the market rose, with a total trading volume of 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.17 trillion yuan from the previous day [2] - The technology sector led the market, reinforcing its mainline position. The market opened slightly lower but quickly moved upward, driven by strong demand in the technology industry, particularly after TSMC announced a 50% price increase for its 2nm process compared to the 3nm process. Semiconductor, photovoltaic equipment, and gaming sectors outperformed traditional sectors like banking and coal [2][5] - The "9.24" policy anniversary effect continued to release, with the ChiNext Index showing a cumulative increase of nearly 100% over the past year and the STAR Market 50 Index up nearly 120%, significantly outperforming other broad-based indices [2] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market continued to adjust, with all contracts closing lower. The 30-year contract fell by 0.58%, reaching a six-month low, while the 10-year contract showed weak support [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal and increased demand at the quarter-end led to a rise in short-term interest rates. The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.434%, up by 2.1 basis points. The central bank conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a rate of 1.40% [6][7] - Short-term pressures coexist with medium- to long-term allocation needs, as the bond market faces short-term challenges while still having room for monetary policy easing in the medium to long term [7] Commodity Market Analysis - The domestic commodity futures market showed a "more up than down" trend, with energy, chemicals, and black building materials leading the gains. The main contract for glass rose over 4%, and fuel oil increased by more than 3% [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)", which is expected to boost market expectations for related products [8] - Precious metals continued to show strong fluctuations, supported by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical risks, with London gold prices maintaining around 3770 USD per ounce [10] Trading Hotspots - Recent popular varieties include non-ferrous metals, artificial intelligence, domestic chips, and robots, driven by factors such as central bank purchases, accelerated capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic technological breakthroughs [11] - The market is expected to shift from a "technology-led" to a "balanced allocation" approach, with strong logic in sub-sectors of technology still performing well [12]