黄金价格一路上涨，为何？

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have reached new highs, driven by multiple factors including changes in Federal Reserve policy, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 23, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen approximately 38% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is seen as a direct catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have consistently increased their gold holdings, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, accounting for about 20% of global gold demand [6]. - The World Gold Council reported that 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe haven [8][9]. - The U.S. defense budget has surpassed $1 trillion, raising concerns about an arms race and escalating geopolitical tensions, further enhancing gold's appeal as a defensive asset [9]. Group 5: Inflation Hedge - Current global inflation pressures highlight gold's strategic value as an important inflation hedge, with U.S. inflation rebounding to 2.9% in August [10]. - Historical data indicates that gold tends to perform well in environments where inflation exceeds 3%, reinforcing its attractiveness as a protective asset [10]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of gold is expected to grow at a stable, single-digit rate, while investment demand is rapidly increasing, contrasting with declining jewelry consumption [12][14]. - In the first half of 2025, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 397 tons, the highest for the same period since 2020, indicating a significant shift towards investment demand [12][14].