米莱如何“自救”？华尔街：阿根廷比索需要“贬值20%，如果他敢的话”

Core Insights - The fate of the Argentine peso is crucial for the Milei government's ability to navigate the current crisis, with consensus among Wall Street analysts indicating that the peso is significantly overvalued and requires a substantial devaluation to aid the government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays Bank suggests that the real effective exchange rate of the Argentine peso needs to depreciate by up to 30% to stimulate the economy, while StoneX and local broker One618 estimate the peso is overvalued by about 20% [1]. - One618's chief economist, Juan Manuel Pazos, states that to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) terms for a $20 billion agreement, the peso must reach an exchange rate of 1650 to 1700 against the dollar, compared to the recent closing price of 1408 [1]. - StoneX analyst Ramiro Blazquez believes a peso to dollar exchange rate of 1500 to 1600 is more reasonable for Argentina [1]. Group 2: Political Challenges - The Milei government faces significant political pressure, making it unlikely to allow a substantial weakening of the peso before the critical midterm elections in October, especially after recent local election losses [2]. - Following the unexpected defeat in local elections, investor confidence in the Milei government has wavered, leading to a sell-off of the Argentine peso [2]. - The Argentine central bank reportedly sold over $1 billion in foreign reserves within three days to defend the exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Impact - The strong peso, along with fiscal tightening, was initially used by the Milei government to stabilize the economy and combat hyperinflation, successfully reducing the annual inflation rate from over 200% a year ago to 33.6% currently [4]. - However, analysts indicate that the degree of overvaluation of the peso is increasing, causing concerns in a country with a history of long-term devaluation and defaults [5]. - The high valuation of the peso has led many Argentinians to shop abroad, and even local meat processors are importing beef, as it is more cost-effective than using local products [5]. Group 4: External Support - Amid market instability, the Milei government received support from the Trump administration, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin promising "all stabilization options" for Argentina, which led to a rise in Argentine assets and a 3.8% increase in the peso [6]. - However, this external support may complicate the situation, as it could exacerbate the overvaluation issue rather than alleviate it, making it harder to achieve the goal of currency recalibration [6]. - Further details are expected to emerge following a meeting between Milei and U.S. President Trump in New York [6].