Freeport-McMoRan(US:FCX) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-25 03:49Core Viewpoint - The copper price surged significantly due to the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, reaching a 15-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and reflecting a broader supply shortage in the global copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Grasberg Mine Suspension - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest gold and copper mines globally, has been officially suspended until mid-2026 due to a safety incident, with a phased restart expected and full production recovery anticipated by 2027 [1][2]. - The suspension is projected to reduce copper output by approximately 35% in 2026 compared to previous targets, equating to a direct supply decrease of about 270,000 tons in the global copper market [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the current global electrolytic copper inventory is at a relatively low historical level, suggesting limited supply chain buffer capacity, which could lead to more pronounced price reactions to any supply disruptions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that inventory sales may alleviate the immediate supply-demand imbalance, gradually raising the price center [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that the suspension of the Grasberg mine, along with other supply disruptions, could enhance the copper supply elasticity, making prices more susceptible to upward movements if demand increases [2][3]. - The Grasberg incident is viewed as a significant catalyst that may initiate a new medium to long-term upward cycle in copper prices, with potential for substantial price increases in the fourth quarter [3].