东吴证券:AIDC柴发高景气 供不应求下国产替代可期
SCSSCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2025-09-25 05:50

Core Viewpoint - The breakthrough in AI technology starting in 2024 is expected to accelerate global CSP CAPEX, with significant growth projected for both North America and domestic markets in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: CSP CAPEX and Market Growth - North America's four major CSPs are projected to have a combined CAPEX of approximately $340 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% [2]. - The five major CSPs in China are expected to have a combined CAPEX of about 428 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 69% [2]. - The domestic diesel power generation market is estimated to reach 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53%, with a projected market size of 18.2 billion yuan by 2028 and a CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2]. Group 2: Diesel Power Generation Market Dynamics - The diesel power generation market in China is currently dominated by foreign and joint venture companies, which account for 83% of the market, while domestic companies hold only 17% [3]. - There is significant potential for domestic companies to replace foreign products, as they have been accumulating technology through joint ventures and acquisitions [3]. - The current global demand for diesel power generation is surging, with foreign manufacturers facing tight delivery schedules, leading to rising prices for diesel power generation products [3]. Group 3: Key Companies and Segments - Key players in the engine segment include Weichai Power (000338.SZ) and Yuchai International (CYD.US) [4]. - In the generator set segment, notable companies are Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ), KOTAI Power (300153.SZ), and Taihao Technology (600590.SH) [4]. - Suppliers of engine components include Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ) [4].