数据信任危机正在华尔街上演！“新债王”也信不过美国政府？

Core Viewpoint - DoubleLine Capital, founded by the "new bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach, is concerned about the declining quality of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is utilizing various official and private data sources to assess the health of the U.S. economy [2][3] Group 1: Concerns about Data Quality - The BLS has significantly revised previous employment data downward, causing market turmoil and raising investor concerns about the Federal Reserve's data reliance [2] - The participation rate in the employer survey used by the BLS for its monthly employment report has dropped from 60% in the 2010s to nearly 40% in recent years [2][3] - The BLS is increasingly relying on statistical interpolation methods to estimate missing data due to declining survey responses, which raises the risk of measurement errors [3] Group 2: Economic Analysis Approach - DoubleLine Capital employs a holistic approach to monitor economic health, supplementing official data with private datasets, corporate earnings calls, and insights from internal experts [2] - The recent data indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with job growth falling short of expectations, supporting the view that the labor market is losing momentum [3] - The decline in the quality of BLS data undermines the reliability of economic analysis, posing risks to businesses, policymakers, and markets [3]