金荣中国：白银早盘高位震荡小跌，等待回落支撑位多单布局

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases amid high volatility, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut not leading to significant gains in silver prices. The dollar index rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [1] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also increased, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace proposal for Gaza and discussions between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers regarding the Ukraine crisis, have reduced market risk aversion [1] Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, has heightened market caution. Powell emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation risks with a slowing job market, without providing new clues on future interest rate directions, interpreted as a conservative stance on further easing [3] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December. However, there are notable internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding aggressive rate cuts, with some warning against premature easing based on temporary inflation assumptions [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Market Expectations - The market is focused on two key U.S. economic data releases that will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices. The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reveal the latest employment market dynamics, with strong data potentially reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday. Higher-than-expected PCE data could validate Powell's cautious approach, while lower inflation could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] Market Trends and Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support and resistance trading. The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of the trading range, with support at 43.53. Caution is advised in trading due to reduced market activity [7] Global Financial Market Dynamics - The precious metals market continues to present investment opportunities, with investors encouraged to utilize trading platforms for real-time market updates and to seize profit opportunities [8]