黄金疯涨！历史新高不断刷新，后市如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the gold market has attracted global investor attention, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,790.97 per ounce as of September 23, just shy of the $3,800 mark [1] Group 1: Current Market Characteristics - The gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [3][4] - Analysts predict that if gold breaks through the $3,800 level, the next target could be in the $3,850-$3,900 range, while a pullback could present buying opportunities in the $3,650-$3,700 range [3] Group 2: Driving Factors Behind Gold's Rise - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Following a 25 basis point rate cut in September, the market anticipates two more cuts this year, which supports gold prices. Rising inflation expectations also enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] - Geopolitical Risk: Tensions in the Middle East and trade uncertainties are driving safe-haven investments into gold, reinforcing its status as a "safe haven." Analysts suggest that if U.S. Congress negotiations fail, gold prices could rise by an additional $50-$80 [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a strong upward trend, with gold prices consistently rising along the upper Bollinger Band. Although the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, the MACD still indicates strong bullish momentum [4] - The Bollinger Band width has significantly expanded, indicating increased market volatility, and gold is currently in the third phase of an upward trend [4] Group 4: Professional Trading Recommendations - The recommendation is to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, focusing on the support area around $3,750-$3,740 [4] - Caution is advised as a drop below the $3,690 support level could trigger a medium-term pullback to $3,544 [4] - Strict stop-loss measures are recommended to avoid blind speculation in a one-sided market [4]