Ge Long Hui·2025-09-25 06:20Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Freeport-McMoRan, a major U.S. mining company, has announced a temporary production halt at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a mining accident, leading to a larger-than-expected reduction in copper production forecasts for the next two years, which will exacerbate the anticipated supply gap in the global copper market by 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Freeport-McMoRan has temporarily halted production at the Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, due to an underground mining accident involving a significant influx of wet mud [1] - The company has revised its copper production forecasts downward, indicating a more substantial decline than market expectations for the next two years [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on copper prices, citing the expected supply gap in the global copper market [1] - The global refined copper production forecast for 2025 is projected at 27.853 million tons, with a demand of 27.586 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance of 267,000 tons for this year [1] - For 2026, the refined copper production is expected to reach 28.062 million tons, while demand is anticipated to be 28.482 million tons, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -421,000 tons [1] - Further estimates indicate that the global refined copper supply-demand imbalances for 2027 and 2029 will be -510,000 tons and -756,000 tons, and -1.224 million tons, respectively [1] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - UBS recommends focusing on mining stocks such as Anglo American, Teck Resources, Antofagasta, and Zijin Mining in light of the current market conditions [1]