Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-25 06:48Core Insights - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute forecasts a recovery in major financial data in Q4 2025, driven by ongoing policy support and a stable upward trend in the RMB exchange rate [1] Financial Data Outlook - Total financing is expected to steadily expand, crucial for achieving annual and "14th Five-Year Plan" economic targets, with new policies anticipated to support infrastructure and real estate sectors, leading to stable growth in financing volume [1] - Funding in key areas and weak links is projected to maintain medium to high growth, with financial institutions increasing support for sectors like technology innovation, green finance, and elderly care, resulting in credit growth rates in these areas outpacing overall loan growth [1] - Government bond financing is expected to remain high, with fiscal policies reinforcing counter-cyclical adjustments and local investment demand accelerating, leading to record-high bond issuance for the year [2] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - Interest rates are anticipated to continue a stable downward trend, providing a favorable monetary environment for real economy financing [4] - The A-share market is likely to maintain an upward trend, although caution is advised due to previous rapid increases and rising uncertainties [4] - The RMB is expected to appreciate further, supported by a stable domestic economic environment and downward pressure on the US dollar index, with demand for currency exchange bolstering the RMB's strength [4] Global Economic Context - Global economic growth expectations are mixed, with increasing uncertainties on the demand side and relative stability on the supply side [5] - Overall global inflation is stabilizing, but the US faces risks of inflation rebound, and geopolitical factors will continue to influence global capital flows [5] - Emerging market equities are becoming more attractive amid a weak US dollar index and fluctuating US Treasury yields [5]