瑞银：全球第二大铜矿印尼Grasberg矿难停产 料明年全球铜供需缺口扩大 行业看好紫金矿业等

Group 1 - UBS reports that FCX has announced a temporary production halt at the Grasberg mine due to a mining accident, which will lead to a larger-than-expected reduction in copper output for the next two years, exacerbating the anticipated supply gap in the global copper market by 2026 [1] - The Grasberg mine, which is expected to contribute 70% of the copper and gold output before 2029, has suffered significant infrastructure damage, with an estimated 800,000 tons of wet material flooding the mine [1] - FCX's preliminary assessment indicates that production will be delayed, with only minimal output and sales expected in Q4 2025, and a phased restart planned for 2026, resulting in a projected 35% reduction in copper output compared to previous guidance [1] Group 2 - UBS has adjusted its forecast for global mine supply growth in 2026 from approximately 2% (500,000 tons) to about 1% (below 250,000 tons) due to the downward revision of Grasberg's output guidance and other supply disruptions [2] - The report highlights that refined copper supply growth has consistently outpaced mine supply growth over the past 2-3 years, leading to a tightening of the copper concentrate and scrap market, while delaying the tightening of the refined market [2] - The halt at the Grasberg mine is expected to increase pressure on refined copper supply in 2026, with growth rates anticipated to be below 1% [2] Group 3 - The forecast for refined copper supply in 2026 has been revised downwards, leading to an expanded supply gap in the refined market, despite resilient demand from China driven by strong electricity grid and energy storage needs [3] - UBS anticipates a 3% growth in refined copper demand in 2026, while supply growth will be below 1%, resulting in a supply gap and continued inventory decline, supporting an upward trend in copper prices [3] - The global refined copper production is projected to be 27.853 million tons in 2025, with demand at 27.586 million tons, indicating a supply-demand balance deficit of 267,000 tons for that year, and a negative balance of 421,000 tons expected in 2026 [3]