供应警报拉响！全球第二大铜矿停产，港A有色板块应声“起飞”

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has led to a strong performance in the copper and non-ferrous metal sectors in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by supply concerns following the closure of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [1][3][5]. Market Performance - A-shares saw a collective rise in the industrial metal sector, with multiple copper stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included: - Nepean Mining (耐普矿机) up 19.99% to 62.62 - Jingyi Co. (精艺股份) up 10.02% to 13.50 - Luoyang Molybdenum (洛阳钼业) up 9.98% to 13.87 - Northern Copper (北方铜业) up 8.92% to 15.01 - Tongling Nonferrous (铜陵有色) up 8.58% to 4.68 - Jiangxi Copper (江西铜业) up 6.59% to 30.40 [2][4]. - The Hong Kong market also showed strong performance in the copper and non-ferrous metal sectors, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 10% and Jiangxi Copper and Minmetals Resources increasing by more than 8% [2][4]. Supply Concerns - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has been forced to halt operations due to a landslide, raising concerns about copper supply. The mine is expected to remain closed until mid-next year, with full production recovery not anticipated until 2027 [4]. - Analysts estimate that the mine's closure could reduce global copper production by over 6%, with a potential 35% drop in copper output expected by 2026 [4][5]. Price Movement - Following the supply disruptions, copper prices on the LME surged over 3%, reaching a 15-month high [5]. Long-term Demand Outlook - Copper is recognized as a critical industrial metal, with robust demand driven by global investments in power grids, renewable energy installations, electric vehicles, and data centers [6][7]. - Despite current oversupply conditions, the excess is narrowing significantly, with a reported surplus of only 10,100 tons in the first seven months of 2025, down from 40,100 tons in the same period the previous year [7]. Market Sentiment - Short-term market sentiment is expected to remain influenced by supply disruptions, while medium to long-term trends will depend on actual demand performance [7]. - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, suggesting buying on dips within the range of 80,300 to 80,800 yuan per ton, supported by macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disturbances [7].