BBMarkets：日元反弹乏力，美元高位震荡，USD/JPY静待数据指引

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing a limited rebound due to mixed signals from monetary policies in Japan and the U.S., with the market closely watching upcoming economic data for direction [4][6][10]. Group 1: Yen's Rebound Factors - The recent rebound of the yen is primarily supported by the Bank of Japan's hints at potential interest rate hikes, as indicated in the July meeting minutes [4]. - Progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and occasional increases in market risk aversion have also contributed positively to the yen [4]. Group 2: Limitations on Yen's Strength - The growth rate of Japan's August services PPI has slowed, indicating a weakening inflationary momentum [5]. - Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming leadership election in Japan's ruling party raises questions about the timing of potential interest rate hikes, deterring investors from heavily buying the yen [5]. - Ongoing unresolved tariff issues between the U.S. and Japan cast a shadow over the yen's outlook [5]. Group 3: Dollar's Stagnation - While the Bank of Japan may tighten its policy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates, creating a contrasting monetary policy environment that contributes to the dollar's lack of clear direction [6][7]. - Market expectations suggest two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid cuts due to inflation concerns adds to the dollar's uncertainty [6] . Group 4: Technical Signals - The USD/JPY has recently broken above the 200-day moving average, signaling a short-term bullish outlook [8]. - If the exchange rate can maintain above 149.15, it may test the 150 level and potentially approach 151 [8]. Group 5: Support and Resistance Levels - In the event of a pullback, the 148.50 level may act as a support, while a drop below 148 could lead to a decline towards 147 [9]. - Further declines below the 146-146.40 range could weaken the trend, targeting around 145.50 [9]. Group 6: Upcoming Focus - The short-term outlook for the yen is bolstered by hawkish signals from the central bank, but domestic policy uncertainties and trade issues limit its rebound potential [10]. - The market's attention is directed towards the upcoming Tokyo CPI and U.S. PCE data, which are crucial for central bank policy decisions and will likely influence the next movement of the exchange rate [10].