百利好丨国际金价持续攀升，多重因素共筑价格新底座

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong performance, with prices continuously breaking historical highs, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Movements - On September 23, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.58%, reaching an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [1] - Year-to-date, international spot gold prices have risen approximately 43% from around $2,625 per ounce, while domestic market prices have increased about 38% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Influence - The recent rise in gold prices is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which included a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2025, reinforcing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global official institutions have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with central banks net adding 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of steady accumulation [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of over 90 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting long-term recognition of gold's value [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The current complex global geopolitical landscape, with ongoing tensions in various regions, has heightened market uncertainty and increased investor focus on asset safety [5] - Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been further activated, making it a significant option for capital allocation in uncertain times [5] Group 5: Inflation and Investment Value - The structural volatility of global inflation has highlighted gold's value as a hedge against inflation, with U.S. inflation data rebounding to 2.9% in August, the second-highest this year [6] - The uncertain economic data and policy paths have attracted more medium- to long-term capital inflows into gold, emphasizing its property preservation characteristics [6]