Tesla's Q3 Deliveries May Surprise to the Upside

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's quarterly deliveries are expected to exceed expectations due to two key catalysts: the impending federal EV tax credit deadline and a refreshed Model Y [1][2][10]. Group 1: Delivery Expectations - UBS has raised its estimate for Tesla's third-quarter deliveries to approximately 475,000, surpassing the consensus analyst estimate and indicating a potential return to year-over-year growth [4]. - The urgency created by the September 30 cutoff for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit is likely driving U.S. buyers to make purchases sooner, which may have bolstered demand [5][10]. - The redesigned Model Y, which features significant updates, is expected to attract undecided buyers, further enhancing demand during this critical period [5][6]. Group 2: Market Context - In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered over 384,000 vehicles, a decline from about 444,000 in the same quarter of 2024, but an improvement from the first quarter's 337,000 deliveries [8]. - The second quarter's performance indicates a sequential improvement, setting a cautious yet optimistic tone heading into the third quarter [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If third-quarter deliveries reach the mid-470,000s, it could positively shift the narrative around Tesla's delivery trends and reset expectations for the latter half of the year [10][12]. - The combination of a refreshed Model Y and the tax-credit deadline presents a strong opportunity for Tesla to boost its delivery numbers and regain investor confidence in its automotive business [12].