大涨60%！铂金还能买吗？

Core Insights - Platinum prices have surged over 60% this year, reaching a peak of $1489.22 per ounce, driven by supply constraints and strong global demand for jewelry and investment [1][2] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) attributes the price increase to six key factors: limited supply, robust jewelry demand, heightened investment interest, three consecutive years of supply shortages, rapid consumption of above-ground stocks, and ongoing market tension [1] - Analysts predict that the financial market may experience macro shocks in Q4 due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to sustained high volatility in precious metals, including platinum [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of September 23, 2023, spot platinum closed at $1478.36 per ounce, marking a nearly 64% increase from the end of last year [2] - In Q2 2023, total platinum supply reached 56.8 tons, with mine supply at 45.2 tons, a 34% quarter-on-quarter increase but an 8% year-on-year decrease due to depleted South African inventories and a 14% production cut in Russia [2] - Recycling supply showed significant growth, with 13.2 tons recovered, reflecting both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases, particularly driven by a 45% rise in jewelry recycling in China [2] - The Chinese platinum market has shown remarkable performance, with record sales of platinum investment products and a cumulative price increase of over 50% in the first half of the year [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The mining challenges in South Africa and Russia are expected to persist, limiting production capacity and affecting future supply [3] - Global platinum coin investment demand is projected to increase by 45% year-on-year by 2025, with sustained strong demand from the Chinese market [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains tight, continuing to deplete above-ground inventories [3] Historical Price Trends - The evolution of platinum prices from 2000 to 2025 can be divided into four phases, with significant price fluctuations influenced by supply constraints and demand shifts, particularly in the automotive sector [4] - The first phase (2000-2008) saw prices rise from $450 to $2273 per ounce, driven by increased diesel vehicle penetration and supply limitations [4] - The second phase (2008-2016) experienced a price drop of 65% due to the financial crisis and declining diesel vehicle demand [4] - The third phase (2016-2024) has been characterized by low price fluctuations between $800 and $1100 per ounce, while the fourth phase anticipates a rebound to $1500 per ounce due to supply issues and ETF fund inflows [4] Futures Market Development - Platinum and palladium futures are expected to be launched within the year, which will provide risk management tools for related enterprises and investors [5][6] - The introduction of futures is anticipated to enhance price stability and encourage production and investment in the platinum jewelry sector, which has been historically affected by price volatility [7] - Feedback from industry participants indicates a strong interest in the futures market, with a general bullish sentiment towards platinum prices [7]