百利好晚盘分析：滞胀风险上升 黄金接近3800

Gold Sector - Economists warn of rising stagflation risks in the U.S., with Apollo Global Management's chief economist reporting that 72% of goods in the CPI index are experiencing price increases above the Federal Reserve's 2% threshold, the highest proportion in three years [2] - Concerns are heightened by a weakening labor market, with potential for a 50 basis point rate cut if the slowdown accelerates [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with strong support at $3720; a breakthrough above $3750 could target the previous high of $3790 [2] Oil Sector - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 607,000 barrels for the week ending September 19, contrary to expectations of an increase [4] - Increased drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy facilities and heightened sanctions from the U.S. and EU are supporting oil prices [4] - Technical analysis shows a rebound in oil prices from around $62, reaching a high of $65, with resistance expected in the $65-$66 range [4] Dollar Index - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cautions against hasty rate cuts, noting persistent inflation concerns among businesses, with inflation exceeding the Fed's 2% target for four and a half years [6] - Following the recent FOMC meeting, most Fed officials are cautious about further rate cuts, with only a few supporting the idea [6] - The dollar index has rebounded significantly, with resistance at the 98 level; a breakout could lead to a rise towards the 98.50-99 range [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend on the daily chart, with a high probability of further increases [8] - The hourly chart indicates a consolidation at high levels, suggesting an imminent end to the adjustment phase [8] Copper Sector - Copper prices surged from around $4.53 to a high of $4.81, indicating potential for further short-term gains [9] - Key resistance is noted at $4.80, with support at $4.73 [9] Market Overview - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Fed should signal a rate cut of 100 to 150 basis points, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of cuts due to ongoing inflation risks [10] - The U.S. has officially lowered tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective August 1, 2025 [10]