新加坡华侨投资基金管理有限公司：美国经济放缓与就业疲软，古尔斯比呼吁审慎降息

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to weakening economic growth and a soft labor market [1][3] - The recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% was supported, but future adjustments will depend on economic data [1][3] - Goolsbee describes the current economic environment as shrouded in "stagflation fog," indicating that any rate cuts should be gradual to avoid new economic volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns exist regarding the potential for tariffs implemented since April to push prices higher, complicating policy decisions [4] - The neutral interest rate, defined as neither suppressing nor stimulating the economy, is estimated at around 3.1%, suggesting about a 1% room for further rate cuts [4] - The Fed may consider two more rate cuts this year, one in each of the remaining quarters [4] Group 3 - Labor market signals are critical indicators, with a current unemployment rate of 4.3% remaining historically low despite a slowdown in hiring [6] - The Chicago Fed has launched a new labor monitoring system to better capture employment market changes, integrating eleven types of high-frequency data [6] - If the economy continues to move towards inflation targets, further rate cuts may be possible, but each step will require solid economic progress [6]