拒绝负利率！瑞士央行2024年初以来首度暂停降息

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at zero, ending a six-month easing cycle, in line with the expectations of most economists surveyed [1][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The SNB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is based on stable inflation pressures, with the current inflation rate at 0.2%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][5] - The central bank will continue to monitor the situation and adjust monetary policy as necessary to ensure price stability [1] - The latest inflation forecasts remain consistent, with expectations of an average inflation rate of 0.2% for this year, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027, providing room for potential policy adjustments [5] Group 2: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly this year, gaining over 12% against the US dollar and nearly 1% against the euro, making it one of the best-performing currencies among G-10 [1][6] - The strong franc is viewed as a safe-haven asset during uncertain times, despite the SNB's easing measures [6] Group 3: Economic Impact - Swiss exporters are facing dual pressures from the strong franc and high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could suppress economic activity [4][6] - The KOF research institute has downgraded growth forecasts for next year due to the impact of US tariff policies [6] - Most economists believe the SNB has ended its easing cycle and will maintain zero rates at least until the end of next year, although some predict a return to negative rates if the impact of tariffs becomes clearer by December [7]