“降息空间将超预期”！2万亿资管巨头押注英国央行不会成为异类

Core Viewpoint - Pimco bets on a decline in UK inflation, expecting the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively than current market expectations suggest [2][3] Group 1: Pimco's Position - Pimco, managing $2 trillion in assets, is overweight on 5-year UK government bonds, which will benefit from more aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Andrew Balls, Pimco's Chief Investment Officer, believes that the UK economy will not be an extreme outlier in terms of inflation [2] Group 2: Current Economic Context - The UK's current inflation rate stands at 3.8%, projected to be the highest among G7 countries this year, driven by significant food price increases [2] - Market traders expect the Bank of England to lower the policy rate from the current 4% only 1 to 2 times by the end of next year, with each cut being 25 basis points [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Pimco forecasts that UK inflation will improve by the end of next year, approaching the Bank of England's target of 2% [3] - The anticipated improvement in inflation will allow the policy rate to align closer to Pimco's estimated neutral rate of 2.75% [3] Group 4: Government Actions and Implications - The UK Chancellor has indicated that the government may introduce new taxes to address a fiscal shortfall of over £20 billion, which could further increase inflation [3] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the upcoming budget and its potential impact on inflation through measures like tariffs and VAT [3]