3 6 Ke·2025-09-25 11:45Core Viewpoint - The recent copper mine incident has reignited the rally in industrial metals stocks in the A-share market, following a previous surge in cobalt-related stocks due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, the industrial metals sector in the A-share market rose by 1.31%, with net inflows of nearly 1.6 billion yuan [1]. - The industrial metals sector has seen an overall increase of over 50% since the low point in April, with nearly 20 stocks doubling in market value [9][20]. - Major players in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, experienced stock price increases exceeding 5% [3][11]. Group 2: Key Events and Drivers - The Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which resulted in production halts and a projected 35% drop in output by 2026, has significantly impacted copper prices, pushing them to a new high of 82,710 yuan per ton [8]. - The recent policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, including an extension of the export suspension until October 2025, have raised concerns about future supply and contributed to price increases in the cobalt market [12][13]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's stock has surged by 80% this year, with copper sales contributing significantly to its revenue, accounting for 27.8% of sales and 38.5% of gross profit [7]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has increased by 145% since April, driven by rising prices of its main products, with a reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline [11][20]. - The copper production from Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to reach 650,000 tons in 2024, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the industrial metals sector will continue to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supply-side reforms [14][15]. - The overall sentiment in the industrial metals market remains positive, with expectations of sustained demand and price increases due to global economic recovery and strategic metal pricing dynamics [17][20].