2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-25 12:02Core Viewpoint - The recent significant rise in international copper prices, driven by the unexpected production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine due to a major landslide, has created volatility in the copper market and affected various companies differently [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - On September 24, LME copper prices surged back to the $10,000 per ton level, marking a notable increase of 3.46% in a single day [1][13]. - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, is expected to see a 35% reduction in its 2026 production forecast, leading to heightened concerns about copper supply shortages [3][8]. - Freeport-McMoRan's stock plummeted nearly 17% on September 24, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $11 billion [4][14]. Group 2: Company Performance - Other copper producers, such as Southern Copper and Zijin Mining, experienced significant stock price increases, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization reaching $100 billion [5][6]. - The Grasberg incident has led to increased trading volumes for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with Zijin's trading volume hitting 10.7 billion yuan on September 25 [20]. - Despite the overall rise in copper prices, the valuation of Chinese copper companies remains lower compared to their international counterparts, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum's P/E ratios at 15 and 17, respectively, compared to Southern Copper's 25 [20]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with a projected 1.4% increase in copper mine production against a 3.8% increase in refined copper demand for 2025 [9]. - UBS forecasts that the refined copper market will shift from a slight surplus of 26,700 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 42,100 tons in 2026 due to the Grasberg production halt [9]. - The ongoing supply disruptions in major copper-producing regions, including strikes and accidents, have been a recurring theme affecting copper prices [11][12].