GEM(SZ:002340) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-25 12:35Core Viewpoint - The company, Greeenme (002340.SZ), is a key player in China's new energy industry, focusing on "pollution elimination and resource regeneration," and is planning to issue H-shares in Hong Kong to optimize its capital structure and support its global expansion strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Greenme occupies a strategic position in the new energy supply chain, with a unique business model that integrates "resource recovery and material regeneration," aligning with the themes of "carbon neutrality" and "resource security" [2]. - The company is a leader in the recovery of nickel, cobalt, and tungsten resources in China, particularly excelling in the recycling of lithium-ion batteries and scrapped vehicles, capturing over 10% of China's total recycling volume in the third-party retired lithium-ion battery sector [2]. - Greenme's vertical integration capability, which allows it to produce key materials for ternary lithium batteries from recycled resources, creates barriers in cost control and supply chain security [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 29.392 billion in 2022 to 33.199 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [4]. - Despite steady revenue growth, the company's net profit shows significant volatility, primarily due to its reliance on the prices of bulk commodities like nickel and cobalt, which are subject to global supply and demand fluctuations [5]. - Continuous capital expenditures have led to negative cash flow from investment activities, indicating a reliance on external financing to meet substantial investment needs [6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The upcoming "retirement wave" of power batteries is expected to create a significant market opportunity, with a projected CAGR of 52.1% for retired electric vehicle batteries from 2024 to 2030 [7]. - The demand for high-nickel ternary precursors is anticipated to increase, with penetration rates expected to rise from 35.2% in 2024 to 70.0% by 2030, positioning Greenme to capitalize on this high-value growth trend [7]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Greenme's unique resource closed-loop model and technological barriers in the new materials sector provide long-term strategic investment value, particularly in the context of the "power battery retirement wave" and "resource security" [8]. - The company's aggressive growth strategy, coupled with high debt levels and potential liquidity risks, presents significant financial challenges in the short to medium term [8].