鲍威尔：美股“太贵”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached historical highs due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but market sentiment cooled following Chairman Powell's remarks on valuation concerns, leading to a short-term market adjustment [2] Valuation Indicators - The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has risen to a new high since the end of 2021, indicating potential overvaluation, as it measures stock prices against the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade [4] - The CAPE ratio has surpassed 40 for the first time since 2000, a period that marked the beginning of the internet bubble's collapse [5] - The "Buffett Indicator," which compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the GDP, shows that the current market valuation is approximately 2.7 times the GDP, a level not seen since March 2001 [6] - The forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for the S&P 500 has reached 3.12, the highest since records began in January 2000, suggesting elevated valuations from a revenue perspective [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite high valuations, some analysts argue that strong earnings growth expectations may justify these levels, suggesting that high valuations could be part of a "new normal" rather than a return to historical averages [8] - The current market environment features lower debt levels among major companies and reduced earnings volatility, which may support higher valuation multiples [8]