【世界说】国际组织研究：关税已成美国通胀主要“推手”及美企首要担忧 多方承压

Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy of the Trump administration is identified as a key factor driving up prices in the U.S. and may hinder economic growth for years to come [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Inflation - Approximately one-third of price increases this year for U.S. companies are attributed to tariffs, with inflation potentially dropping to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% without these tariffs [2][3]. - By 2026, tariffs are expected to account for about 25% of the factors driving price increases for businesses [3]. Group 2: Business Costs and Consumer Impact - U.S. companies anticipate an average cost increase of 4.4% this year, with 1.7 percentage points driven by tariffs. Consequently, prices are expected to rise by 3.9%, with 1.3 percentage points attributed to tariffs [3]. - Tariffs and trade policies have become the top concern for CFOs for three consecutive quarters, with those identifying tariffs as a primary risk being notably more pessimistic about economic and business prospects [3]. Group 3: Real-World Price Increases - Coffee prices surged by 4% between July and August due to a 50% tariff on Brazil, marking the largest monthly increase in 14 years. Similarly, a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes resulted in a 4% price increase in August [4]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Consequences - The OECD predicts a 1% decline in U.S. economic growth in 2024, with potential losses amounting to trillions of dollars in goods and services by 2035 if the slowdown continues [5]. - As companies exhaust their ability to buffer against tariff impacts, the U.S. may face a stagnation risk characterized by slowing growth, a weak labor market, and rising inflation, with average inflation expected to reach 3% by 2026 [7]. - Evidence of economic impact is already visible, with 60% of Texas retailers and 70% of manufacturers reporting negative effects from tariffs. John Deere has incurred losses of approximately $300 million due to steel and aluminum tariffs, with further losses expected by year-end [7].