芯片主业承压！ 英伟达入局无人驾驶出租车？

Core Insights - Nvidia is incubating a Robotaxi project, transitioning from a chip supplier to a direct participant in the market, driven by the need for a technology closed-loop [1][2] - The global Robotaxi market is expected to reach 488.8 billion yuan in China and 834.9 billion yuan worldwide by 2030, with Nvidia aiming to leverage its technology for sales growth in autonomous driving solutions [2][3] - Nvidia's automotive and robotics revenue was only 1.31% of its total revenue in FY2025, indicating a need for growth in this segment [3] Group 1: Nvidia's Strategic Shift - Nvidia's move into Robotaxi may be an attempt to replicate Tesla's success by validating its GPU and AI capabilities through real-world projects [2][3] - The company has previously invested in Robotaxi firms like WeRide, indicating a strategic interest in the sector [1] - Analysts suggest that Nvidia's involvement in Robotaxi could enhance its technology ecosystem by providing real operational data for model optimization [1][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The Robotaxi industry is rapidly evolving, with both China and the U.S. leading in small-scale operations and commercialization [2] - Nvidia's Drive Orin-X chip holds a 39.8% market share in the domestic smart driving domain, but its automotive revenue remains low compared to its overall earnings [2][3] - Competitors like Waymo and Tesla have established a strong foothold in the market, posing challenges for Nvidia in terms of operational experience and data accumulation [6][8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Nvidia's total revenue for FY2025 is projected at $130.5 billion, with automotive and robotics contributing only $1.7 billion [3] - The company aims to accelerate its automotive business, targeting $5 billion in revenue by FY2026 [3] - Despite its strong chip technology, Nvidia faces challenges in the automotive sector, including delays in the production of its next-generation DRIVE Thor chip [6][7] Group 4: Investment Trends and Challenges - The Robotaxi sector requires significant capital investment, with companies like Waymo receiving substantial funding to advance their projects [4][6] - Domestic competitors are increasing their R&D expenditures, indicating a competitive landscape where Nvidia must enhance its operational capabilities [4][7] - The industry is still in its early stages, with profitability being a concern, making Nvidia's timing for entry critical [3][8]