苦求无果后，特朗普发现不妙：中方又买了10船大豆，但不是美国的

Core Insights - Argentina announced the cancellation of a 26% export tax on soybeans until October 31, with zero tariffs on soybean oil and meal, and a $7 billion tax-free quota limit, prompting immediate orders from Chinese buyers [1][14]. - The U.S. is currently in its soybean harvest season, but Chinese orders have dropped to zero, leading to significant distress among American farmers [3][9]. - The U.S. soybean market share is rapidly being taken over by South American countries, particularly Brazil, which exported 65.92 million tons of soybeans to China from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.8 million tons [7][14]. U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - The U.S. has faced increased tariffs on its soybean exports to China, with rates rising from 10% to as high as 145%, making U.S. soybeans $200 to $300 per ton more expensive than South American soybeans [5][9]. - American farmers are experiencing rising production costs and declining prices, leading to a third consecutive year of negative profit margins [9][12]. - The American Soybean Association has urged the Trump administration to prioritize resolving trade issues with China, as U.S. soybeans are being sidelined in favor of Brazilian products [12][16]. Competitive Landscape - Brazil has become the primary supplier of soybeans to China, with August exports reaching 10.49 million tons, accounting for over 85% of China's imports that month [7][14]. - Argentina's recent policy changes aim to capture a share of the soybean market, but its limited export capacity for the remainder of the year may not meet long-term demand [14][16]. - The logistics improvements in Brazil, including infrastructure projects supported by China, have enhanced its supply stability, further solidifying its competitive advantage [14][16].