MLF连续7个月加量续作 央行多工具护航跨季资金面

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively increasing medium-term liquidity injections to alleviate market pressures from significant fund expirations, particularly in late September, while also optimizing operational mechanisms to enhance liquidity management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection and Market Response - During the week of September 22-26, the PBOC faced a high expiration of funds totaling 21,268 billion yuan, with reverse repos accounting for 18,268 billion yuan and MLF for 3,000 billion yuan, marking a peak for the year [1][2]. - On September 25, the PBOC conducted a 6,000 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 3,000 billion yuan, continuing a trend of increased MLF operations for seven consecutive months [1][2]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a rise across all short-term products on September 24, indicating tightening liquidity in the banking system, with the 7-day Shibor increasing by 12.80 basis points to 1.5900% [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Considerations and Market Stability - The PBOC's ongoing liquidity injections are driven by multiple policy considerations, including the need to support government bond issuances and stabilize market expectations amid rising medium- to long-term interest rates [3][5]. - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo operation mechanism to a "fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, multiple price bidding" model aims to enhance liquidity management and respond to seasonal funding demands [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the 14-day reverse repo will become a more frequently used tool for short-term liquidity adjustments, moving beyond traditional holiday periods [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Impact - Experts anticipate that the PBOC will maintain a supportive stance on liquidity, with potential downward pressure on the 14-day reverse repo rate, which could positively influence the bond market [8][9]. - The recent reforms signal a clear intention for a looser monetary policy, which is expected to stabilize market sentiment and provide support for the bond market ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" implementation [9].