美国页岩业高管匿名吐槽特朗普：全是乱的，谁愿意在这种环境下做商业决定

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. shale oil industry is experiencing unprecedented anxiety due to the Trump administration's energy and trade policies, which are perceived as detrimental to the sector's economic viability [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Sentiment - Executives from U.S. shale oil companies express frustration over the Trump administration's lack of understanding of shale oil economics, claiming that policies are effectively aligning with OPEC to suppress oil prices below sustainable levels [1][3]. - A significant decline in drilling activity is reported, with a 6.5% decrease in shale drilling in the Southwest U.S. during Q3, although this is an improvement from an 8.1% drop in the previous quarter [3][4]. - The proportion of companies with negative outlooks has nearly tripled, indicating a sharp decline in confidence within the industry [4]. Group 2: Price and Economic Impact - Executives indicate that their businesses will incur losses if oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, with expectations of WTI prices stabilizing at $63 by year-end and reaching $67 by 2027 [3]. - Concerns are raised about the Trump administration's goal to lower oil prices to $40 per barrel, which could lead to a cessation of drilling activities [3][4]. - The imposition of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum since June has increased operational costs for the industry, compounding existing challenges [3][4]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Concerns - Executives worry that the Trump administration's attacks on renewable energy could have negative repercussions for the shale industry, particularly regarding future regulations on methane emissions and environmental reviews [4]. - The administration's rollback of tax incentives for clean energy and halting major renewable projects raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the energy sector [4].