美联储再降息前景不明，今年两票委犹豫，鲍曼和米兰坚持

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing deepening divisions regarding further interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about aggressive easing potentially hindering inflation from returning to the 2% target, while others advocate for faster cuts due to perceived economic weaknesses [1][5]. Group 1: Divergent Views on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are cautious about further rate cuts, fearing that excessive easing could impede inflation from falling to the Fed's 2% target [1]. - Schmid believes the current policy stance is slightly restrictive and in an appropriate position, while Goolsbee warns against multiple aggressive cuts based solely on employment data [1][3]. - In contrast, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran are pushing for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that inflation is close enough to the target and the labor market is weaker than expected [1][5]. Group 2: Emphasis on Inflation and Employment - Schmid emphasizes the necessity of a moderately tight policy, expressing concerns that inflation may remain sticky and could rise to 3% instead of falling to the 2% target [2]. - Goolsbee highlights the risk of stagflation, indicating that the current environment shows signs of such pressures, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and employment [3]. - Bowman points out that the labor market is more fragile than anticipated, suggesting that the committee should take decisive action given the low average job growth since April [5]. Group 3: Calls for Aggressive Easing - Miran advocates for immediate and substantial rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points to reach a neutral rate, arguing that the current 4% to 4.25% rate is overly restrictive [5]. - He was the only official to vote against the recent 25 basis point cut, favoring a 50 basis point reduction instead, reflecting a more aggressive stance on monetary policy [5].