Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met prior forecasts, with revenue of 63.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.767 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] Performance Review - FY25 revenue reached 63.241 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.767 billion yuan after deducting approximately 400 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, consistent with prior guidance [1] - In the second half of FY25, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.297 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, primarily due to the benefits from self-produced pulp and cost improvements from declining coal prices [1] Development Trends - The company expects continued growth in FY26, with total sales of 21.5 million tons in FY25, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by significant increases in sales of various paper types [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of high-end kraft paper, rather than merely expanding production capacity [2] - In FY26, the company has already launched production of 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with further expansions planned [2] Price and Cost Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in paper prices, estimating profits per ton of paper at 59 yuan and 151 yuan for the first and second halves of FY25, respectively [3] - The company expects a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but overall profit margins for corrugated paper are expected to recover slightly [3] Capital Expenditure and Profit Forecast - Capital expenditure for FY25 was 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [3] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion yuan, which is higher than previous guidance [3] - The company has raised net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by 11% and 15%, respectively, to 2.75 billion yuan and 2.88 billion yuan, with a target price increase of 17% to 7 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3]
玖龙纸业(02689.HK)：2HFY25业绩改善拐点显现