Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts to address economic risks, contrasting with Chairman Powell's gradual approach [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan suggests that current interest rates are 1.5 to 2 percentage points above the neutral rate and calls for multiple 50 basis point cuts to bring rates to a suitable range [1] - He emphasizes that maintaining high rates for an extended period increases economic risks, particularly the likelihood of rising unemployment [1] - Milan defines the neutral rate as being around the mid-2% level, significantly lower than the current Federal Funds rate of 4.00%-4.25% [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Milan links the recent population growth and subsequent decline to significant economic impacts, noting that the previous surge in population was due to government borrowing and increased immigration [1] - He warns that every day rates remain above the neutral level makes monetary policy more restrictive, increasing financing and investment costs for businesses and households [1] Group 3: Immigration and Housing Market - Milan connects immigration trends to housing rental prices, predicting that negative net immigration will lead to increased housing supply and a cooling of rental inflation over the next 6 to 12 months [2] - He argues that the current high levels of the stock market are driven by non-monetary factors such as tax cuts and deregulation, rather than Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] Group 4: Independence and Future Outlook - Milan's focus on immigration and tariffs aligns with the policies of the Trump administration, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Despite his previous role in the Trump administration, Milan asserts that his decisions will be based on independent analysis rather than political directives [2] - Appointed to fill a temporary vacancy, Milan's term will end in January 2026, during which he expects to have three voting opportunities [2]
新官上任三把火！美联储理事米兰呼吁激进降息 挑战鲍威尔渐进策略
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-25 22:24