美股为何涨势不休？摩根大通策略师称这一因素或是关键推手

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has been on a steady rise since the 2008 financial crisis, supported by expanding profit margins and reduced earnings volatility among large corporations [1] - A significant factor driving the long-term increase in U.S. stocks is the imbalance in supply and demand within the stock market, as highlighted by Michael Cembalest from J.P. Morgan Asset Management [4] Group 1: Market Supply Dynamics - Since 2011, the net supply of U.S. stocks has been declining, providing a "buffer" for the market during various shocks [4] - The overall supply of U.S. stocks, measured by market capitalization, has contracted since 2011, with the exception of a temporary increase during the IPO boom in 2020 [4] - Major stock buybacks by companies have been a key factor in the reduction of supply [4] Group 2: Demand Factors - Continuous inflows from pension plans, including fixed income and defined contribution plans, have provided stable buying support for the stock market [4] - Although the proportion of these inflows relative to the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 has decreased in recent years, approximately $1.5 trillion still needs to find investment targets each year [4] Group 3: Market Resilience - The U.S. stock market has shown unexpected resilience despite multiple sell-off periods since 2011, with only two instances evolving into full-blown bear markets: the March 2020 crash due to COVID-19 and the bear market in 2022, which resulted in the worst annual performance for the S&P 500 since 2008 [4] - The recent performance of major U.S. indices indicates a cautious short-term market sentiment, as evidenced by a decline across all three major indices for the first time since March of this year [5]