国际金银价飙至历史新高，美政府停摆危机“火上浇油”，国庆假期投资策略曝光｜大宗风云

Core Insights - The international precious metals market has shown a volatile pattern, with gold reaching a historical high of $3824.6 per ounce on September 23, followed by a slight decline to $3797.1 per ounce on September 24, indicating increased short-term market divergence [2] - Silver prices also hit a historical high of $44.77 per ounce, driven by the precious metal's attributes and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to significant inflows into the silver market [2][3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the looming U.S. government shutdown have contributed to rising precious metal prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets [3][5] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with expectations of increased demand in the photovoltaic sector due to China's policies [6][7] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the list of critical minerals for 2025 has raised concerns about potential tariffs, further supporting the silver market [6] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for nearly 60% of total demand, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors [7] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts have created uncertainty in the market, with some officials advocating for caution while others support further rate reductions [4][5] - Market expectations for two rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, continue to support the bullish outlook for gold and silver [8][9] - The potential for increased inflation and rising unemployment presents a complex scenario for the Fed, impacting investor sentiment towards precious metals [5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider fund products, such as ETFs, for lower volatility and higher liquidity compared to physical assets [9][10] - The long-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive, driven by ongoing liquidity and geopolitical factors, with predictions of gold prices potentially exceeding $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [9][10] - The silver market's fundamentals, including the gold-silver ratio and industrial demand, support a strategy of buying on dips [10]