美联储向全球宣告25个基点降息，特朗普终究还是失算了，这一场仗虽胜犹败

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a response to economic data indicating a weakening job market, despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1][2][6] Economic Data and Employment - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 after a nine-month interval [1] - August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below market expectations and down from a revised 79,000 in July [1] - Revised data indicates that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, highlighting a more sluggish employment market [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, the largest increase since January, with a median inflation forecast of 3% for the end of 2025, above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a data-driven decision aimed at mitigating risks from a softening job market, rather than a political maneuver [2][5] Political Dynamics and Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's desire for a more aggressive rate cut stems from the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion, with interest payments becoming a significant budgetary concern [3] - The Fed's decision-making process is designed to resist short-term political pressures, with Powell receiving broad support from the financial and academic communities [5][6] - The Fed's 25 basis point cut is seen as a cautious response to economic conditions, maintaining its independence despite external pressures from the Trump administration [5][6] Market Reactions and Global Context - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices initially rose before retreating, while the dollar experienced volatility, indicating mixed market reactions [4] - Approximately 90% of businesses plan to raise prices within three months, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [4] - Global central banks are responding differently to the Fed's actions, with the European Central Bank remaining steady and the Bank of Japan considering rate hikes, showcasing varied economic conditions across regions [5]