股指 有望重拾上行趋势

Group 1 - Domestic policy expectations are rising, with "anti-involution" and demand expansion policies expected to work in tandem, further stabilizing the economy's endogenous momentum [1][5] - Global macro liquidity is improving, and the micro funding environment is favorable, providing support for stock indices [1][4][5] - The stock index is expected to resume an upward trend after a period of consolidation, driven by both fundamental and liquidity boosts [1][5] Group 2 - In August, broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates declined, with broad fiscal revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Tax revenue showed a positive trend, with corporate income tax increasing by 33.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 27 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - Land-related tax revenues continued to show negative growth, with government fund revenue declining by 5.7% year-on-year in August [2][3] Group 3 - Public budget expenditure growth is accelerating, with social welfare-related expenditures maintaining growth, while infrastructure-related expenditures are declining [3] - The government is expected to continue policy support due to the current economic pressures, particularly in light of weak land-related revenues [3] - The significant increase in corporate income tax reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, and there are signs of recovery in corporate profits as PPI declines narrow [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is part of a "preventive" easing cycle, contributing to global macro liquidity improvement [4] - The Chinese central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations for continued moderate easing in the future [4] - The market is experiencing active sentiment, supported by sustained high levels of financing and increased non-bank deposits [4]