重磅会议！“建议全行业限产30%以上”，涉及这些品种→

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coking industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to price increases for coking coal and coke, as well as calls for production cuts to maintain industry profitability [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - A special market analysis meeting was held by the China Coking Industry Association on September 25, where representatives from major coking enterprises discussed the current macroeconomic environment and industry dynamics [1]. - From September 26, prices for various types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loading wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loading dry quenching coke [1]. - The industry is advised to limit production by over 30% and to adopt measures such as reducing or halting shipments to uncooperative clients to protect industry interests [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coking coal market is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources [4]. - In 2024, the domestic production of coking coal is projected to be 472 million tons, while imports of coking coal are expected to reach 122 million tons, with Mongolian coal accounting for 46.7% of imports [4]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity making up about 65% [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, supporting price increases [5]. - Despite a slight accumulation of coke inventory, the market is expected to see continued upward pressure on prices due to stable iron output and pre-holiday restocking demands [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the coking market may experience 2 to 3 rounds of price increases in the near future, driven by strong cost support and high steel production levels [6].