布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：劳动力市场疲软或迫使美联储加速降息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warns of the risk of falling behind the economic curve as signs of weakness emerge in the U.S. labor market, urging decisive action to address declining employment vitality to avoid larger future policy adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Policy Actions - Recent employment data indicates a weakening U.S. labor market, prompting Bowman to advocate for proactive measures from the Federal Open Market Committee [3]. - Multiple indicators, including revisions to non-farm payroll data, signal potential issues, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust interest rates more rapidly and significantly if current trends persist [3]. - Bowman previously suggested three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and the Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, with most policymakers expecting two more cuts this year [3][5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Bowman's stance aligns with another board member advocating for aggressive rate cuts to prevent economic damage, while others, like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, prefer a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more time to observe inflation trends [5]. - Bowman cautions against over-reliance on lagging data, arguing that strict adherence to data can lead to delayed policy adjustments that may necessitate more drastic corrections in the future [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation have eased, allowing for more flexible interest rate adjustments [9]. - The discussions within the Fed regarding policy pace are intensifying as labor market signals shift, with Bowman's comments highlighting the need for a balance between data reliance and forward-looking judgments [9].