炼焦行业协会专题市场分析会： “建议全行业限产30%以上”

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee on September 25 resulted in a decision to raise prices for various types of coke and to recommend a production cut of over 30% across the industry to maintain reasonable profit levels and healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from September 26, prices for different types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for solid wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for solid dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loaded wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loaded dry quenching coke [1]. - Recent days have seen several companies raise prices for coking coal and coke [1]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Production - The coking coal industry is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources. The projected domestic coking coal production for 2024 is 472 million tons [2]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity accounting for about 65%. The projected production of coke and semi-coke for 2024 is 489 million tons [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, with iron water production increasing at a higher rate than coke production. This supports the prices of both coking coal and coke [3][4]. - As of mid-September, the cumulative iron water production from 247 sample steel mills was 630 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the cumulative coke production was approximately 300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [2]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of "anti-involution" and "weak reality," with expectations of price support due to downstream replenishment before the National Day holiday [4]. - Analysts suggest that the coking coal market has strong cost support, and with sustained high iron water production, there is potential for a price increase in coke, with expectations of 2 to 3 rounds of price hikes [4].