上半年全球经济韧性超预期

Core Insights - The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%, while maintaining a 2.9% growth prediction for 2026, indicating a complex balance between resilient recovery and structural challenges in the global economy [1][6] - Emerging market economies are showing strong adaptability and are becoming a significant driver of growth, supported by companies preemptively adjusting production plans and inventory to avoid potential high tariff costs, creating a "rush to export" effect [1][6] - Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating globally, with a notable increase in digital transformation efforts and investments in AI technologies, particularly in China, where nearly 60% of global sovereign wealth funds plan to increase allocations to Chinese assets over the next five years, especially in the tech sector [1][6] Economic Risks - The report highlights rising tariff rates and renewed inflation pressures as key risks, with the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reaching 19.5%, the highest since 1933, and the full effects of these tariff increases yet to be realized [2][4] - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with the OECD predicting U.S. economic growth to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and further to 1.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at only 1.2% and 1.0% in the next two years [4][6] Policy Recommendations - The OECD suggests that international cooperation is crucial, advocating for increased transparency and predictability in trade policies while balancing economic security [5][6] - Countries are encouraged to deepen structural reforms to unlock the growth potential of new technologies like AI, fostering an innovative policy environment and enhancing collaboration in key technology areas [5][6]