医药逻辑的“变局时刻”已经开始酝酿

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese innovative drug market, emphasizing the significance of business development (BD) transactions as a driving force behind the recent bull market in innovative drugs. However, it warns that the overemphasis on BD may lead to a shift in investment logic as the market matures [1][2]. Group 1: BD Transactions and Market Dynamics - BD expectations have been a core driver of the recent bull market in innovative drugs, significantly increasing the market capitalization of many pharmaceutical companies [2]. - As the number and value of BD transactions rise, investor decision thresholds are also increasing, leading to a potential devaluation of BD's perceived value in investment decisions [2]. - The article suggests that while BD will continue to be important, its dominance as the primary investment logic will gradually diminish, necessitating a new consensus among investors [2]. Group 2: Commercialization and Market Potential - The commercialization of drugs is crucial for innovative pharmaceutical companies, especially in the context of limited funding and high R&D costs. Many companies rely on BD as a financing method due to the challenges in securing capital [4]. - The domestic market remains a critical area for commercialization, despite some investors viewing it pessimistically. The article argues that successful commercialization in the domestic market can significantly alleviate R&D pressures for companies [5][6]. - There is a notable discrepancy between the overemphasis on BD expectations and the undervaluation of commercialization potential, particularly in the domestic market, which is deemed unreasonable [6]. Group 3: Future Investment Trends - The article posits that the next wave of investment in the pharmaceutical sector may focus on companies that are successfully commercializing their products in the domestic market, rather than solely on BD opportunities [6][7].