黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.9.26）

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a combination of strong U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, with support from market buying interest and the performance of other precious metals [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8% and initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below the anticipated 235,000 [2]. - The strong economic indicators have bolstered the U.S. dollar, which rose to a three-week high, increasing the holding costs of gold as it is priced in dollars [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October decreased slightly from 90% to 85%, further pressuring gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Active buying interest in the market has provided strong support for gold prices, with silver and platinum reaching multi-year highs, indicating sustained interest in precious metals [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold faced resistance at the 5-day moving average, with a critical support level at the 10-day moving average around 3705 [6]. - The recent price action shows a downward trend in daily highs, suggesting a continuation of a weak market sentiment unless gold can break above the resistance at 3762 [6]. - The four-hour chart indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with key levels at 3717 for support and 3762 for resistance, which will dictate the market direction [9]. Key Upcoming Events - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE data and personal spending figures, as these will significantly influence gold's future trajectory [3][11]. - The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policy and gold prices [3].