美国银行业准备金余额已跌破3万亿美元，预示金融体系“流动性紧张”，美联储需要停止缩表

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, falling below $3 trillion, raising concerns about liquidity tightening in the market [1][2] - The decline in reserves is attributed to the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) and the U.S. Treasury's large-scale debt issuance, leading to a continuous loss of liquidity in the financial system [2] - The effective federal funds rate has slightly increased, indicating a tightening financial environment, despite the Fed's assertion that reserves are still at "ample" levels [1][3] Group 1: Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. banking system's reserves have dropped by approximately $21 billion to $2.9997 trillion, marking the lowest level since January 1 of this year [1] - The combination of QT and increased debt issuance by the Treasury is causing liquidity to be drained from the financial system [2] - The pressure of liquidity tightening is increasingly reflected in commercial banks' reserve accounts, with foreign banks experiencing a faster decline in cash assets compared to domestic banks [2] Group 2: Federal Funds Rate Dynamics - The effective federal funds rate rose by one basis point to 4.09%, remaining within the target range of 4% to 4.25% set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] - The upward trend in the federal funds rate is interpreted as a signal of rising financing costs and a tightening financial environment [3] - The trading volume supporting the federal funds rate has decreased due to reduced surplus funds available for borrowing from non-U.S. institutions [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging decision as liquidity tightening signs become more apparent [4] - There is a discussion regarding the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy framework, with suggestions to consider alternative benchmarks for policy implementation [4][5] - The Dallas Fed President has indicated that the reliance on the federal funds rate may be outdated, advocating for a shift towards a more active overnight rate linked to the U.S. Treasury secured lending market [4]