“易中天”被高估了？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a surge, leading to concerns about potential overvaluation in AI-related stocks, particularly in the optical module sector, represented by companies like New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication [1][2][50]. Group 1: Market Trends - The rapid development of AI is expected to increase the demand for optical modules and drive upgrades towards higher transmission rates [5][6]. - The competition in AI computing not only focuses on GPU capabilities but also on data transmission efficiency, where optical modules play a crucial role [7][8]. - The optical module sector is witnessing a significant increase in both demand and iteration speed, with a shift from 400Gb/s to 800Gb/s modules already impacting company performance [12][14]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New Yisheng reported a revenue of 10.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, while Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 14.79 billion, up 36.95% [13]. - The gross margins for these companies have improved, reflecting the successful rollout of high-end products like the 800G optical modules [12][13]. - The expected market size for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to exceed $22 billion by 2030, driven by increased capital expenditure from key clients [15]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the ratings for New Yisheng and Tianfu Communication, citing that their valuations have reached historical highs [2][3]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratios for Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Tianfu Communication are currently at 34.71, 30.66, and 48.04, respectively, with a reasonable P/E range suggested to be between 30-40 times [31][32]. - The influx of capital into the A-share market and the potential for higher valuations due to improved liquidity are factors that could influence the stock prices of these companies [34][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors already holding shares in these high-flying stocks, a strategy of locking in profits through gradual selling is recommended [39][40]. - New investors are advised to wait for significant price corrections before entering the market, as chasing high prices can lead to losses [46][50]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while there may be some bubble characteristics in these stocks, continued interest and investment in AI infrastructure could sustain their valuations [50][51].